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Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Gains, Modest Deceleration

December 28, 2021
Bottom Line:  Home prices rose as expected in October with robust gains across many markets. After three months of slightly slower than expected gains before this, the trend rate of gains has been decelerating modestly since July. Consistent with plateauing but still robust housing data, home prices were up just shy of 13% annualized in the three months ended in October versus up over 18+% in the prior twelve months. Phoenix, Las Vegas, Tampa, Miami, and Dallas continued to lead the gains. Year-on-year gains were 26 - 30% in those hot markets. But even the slowest markets have seen year-on-year gains of 12 - 17% (Chicago, Minneapolis, Cleveland, DC, and New York). Of course, the Case-Shiller index is lagged, and most indicators suggest prices have continued to edge higher, albeit at a slightly slower pace, amid tight supply conditions and the structural shift in demand towards single-family, suburban homes induced by the pandemic.
Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index ROSE by 0.92% (seasonally adjusted) in October to 279.0, compared with market expectations for an increase of 0.9%. Home prices are 18.4% ABOVE their year-ago level.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index ROSE by 0.8% on the month.
Housing prices rose in 20 of the 20 metro areas in October (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in 20 of 20 metro areas on a year-over-year basis.
Chicago had the smallest year-over-year increase at 12.7% while Phoenix had the largest year-over-year increase at 34.7%.