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Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Gains Through Mid-Summer

September 28, 2021
Bottom Line:  Home prices rose robustly again in July, just below expectations, as metro areas in the sunbelt continued to lead gains. Phoenix, Las Vegas, Tampa, and Dallas led the gains in June.  Year-on-year gains were 25 - 33% in the hottest markets -- Phoenix, San Diego, Seattle, and Tampa.  But even the slowest markets saw year-on-year gains of 14 - 19% (Chicago, Minneapolis, Cleveland, DC, and New York). Of course, the Case-Shiller index is lagged, and housing has cooled modestly since July.  So far, though, most indicators suggest prices have continued to edge higher amid tight supply conditions and the structural shift in demand towards single-family, suburban homes induced by the pandemic.
Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index ROSE by 1.55% (seasonally adjusted) in July to 270.9, compared with market expectations for an increase of 1.7%.  Home prices are 20.0% ABOVE their year-ago level.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index ROSE by 1.5% on the month.
Housing prices rose in 20 of the 20 metro areas in July (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in 20 of 20 metro areas on a year-over-year basis.
Chicago had the smallest year-over-year increase at 14.3% while Phoenix had the largest year-over-year increase at 33.4%.