Article Attachment

The attached file contains this articles commentary as well as tables and charts of the data.
Download Attachment

Jobless Claims: Surprise Jump

September 23, 2021
Bottom Line: Jobless claims jumped to 351k, well above expectations for a decline to 320k  from a revised 335k. Several states reported unusual jumps in claims, suggesting much of the increase was due to processing bottlenecks clearing. California accounted for over 20k of the increase, as the state processed nearly 50% more claims than in the prior week.  Virginia saw nearly four times its usual volume, accounting for over 10k of the national increase.  These look to be anomalies related to processing rather than a shift in trend.  The 4-week average is still below the 13-week, suggesting a declining trend.
Our Nowcast model confirms that the recent jump is likely due to processing anomalies.  It suggests the unadjusted claim count is likely closer to 250k, a bit below the trend pace of claims we would have expected without the recent weeks' jumps.
For now, the jump in claims in the last two weeks is not yet alarming but it certainly bears close watching in the coming weeks.
Jobless Claims ROSE by 16k during the week ended September 18th to 351k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 320k.The 4-week average FELL by 0.8k to 336k and the 13 week average FELL by 5.0k to 366k.
Continuing Claims
ROSE by 131k during the week ended September 11st to 2,845k, The 4-week average FELL by 16k to 2,804k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 157k to 2,535k during the week ended September 4th.

The Insured Jobless Rate
ROSE by  0.1% to 2.1% during the week ended September 11st. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.