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Case Shiller Home Prices: Sunbelt Led Further Gains

August 31, 2021
Bottom Line:  Home prices rose robustly again in June, slightly above expectations, as metro areas in the sunbelt continued to lead gains. Phoenix, Las Vegas, Miami, and Dallas led the gains in June.  Year-on-year gains averaged over 19%, as the hottest markets -- Phoenix, San Diego, and Seattle -- were up between 25 and 30% and the slowest markets -- mostly in the Midwest (Chicago, Minneapolis, and Cleveland) -- were up between 12.5 - 16%.  Of course, the Case-Shiller index is lagged, and housing was modestly slower in July and early August.  So far, though, most indicators suggest prices have continued to edge higher amid tight supply conditions and the structural shift in demand towards single-family, suburban homes induced by the pandemic.
Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index ROSE by 1.77% (seasonally adjusted) in June to 266.6, compared with market expectations for an increase of 1.8%.  Home prices are 19.1% ABOVE their year-ago level.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index ROSE by 2.0% on the month.
Housing prices rose in 20 of the 20 metro areas in June (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in 20 of 20 metro areas on a year-over-year basis.
Chicago had the smallest year-over-year increase at 12.7% while Phoenix had the largest year-over-year increase at 30.2%.