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Jobless Claims: Mostly Steady

August 26, 2021
Bottom Line: After four weeks of declines, claims edged slightly higher last week, back over 350k.   There were surprising increases in several states, while most states saw declines.  The jumps, probably due to the clearing of processing bottlenecks, will likely reverse in the coming weeks. While the trend has lost momentum in the last few months, it is still towards an improving labor market. The 4-week average is still firmly below the 13-week average, suggesting the trend remains towards slow labor market improvement.
Our Nowcast model suggests claims fell further this week, based on data through Wednesday.
Jobless Claims ROSE by 4k during the week ended August 21st to 353k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 350k.The 4-week average FELL by 11.5k to 367k and the 13 week average FELL by 4.0k to 385k.
Continuing Claims
FELL by 3k during the week ended August 14th to 2,862k, The 4-week average FELL by 109k to 2,902k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 45k to 2,763k during the week ended August 7th.
The Insured Jobless Rate
STAYED at 2.1% during the week ended August 14th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.