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Jobless Claims: Stubborn at 400k

July 29, 2021
Bottom Line: Claims fell less than expected last week, proving stubbornly high at the 400k level.  But the trend is still down, and much of the upside surprise came from seasonal adjustments and what appears to be a one-off uptick in claims in California.  Still, the trend towards steady improvement has clearly lost momentum.  The surge in Covid cases related to the delta variant is unlikely to cause a renewed spike in joblessness as there have been few shutdowns so far, but it will likely hinder further labor improvement for at least the next month.
Our Nowcast model suggests claims were running around 377k this week.
Jobless Claims FELL by 24k during the week ended July 24th to 400k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 385k. The 4-week average ROSE by 8.0k to 395k and the 13 week average FELL by 14.6k to 414k.
Continuing Claims
ROSE by 7k during the week ended July 17th to 3,269k, The 4-week average FELL by 54k to 3,291k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 28k to 3,247k during the week ended July 10th.

The Insured Jobless Rate
STAYED at 2.4% during the week ended July 17th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.