ADP Employment: Modest Rebound

July 3, 2019
Bottom Line: ADP said job growth was 102k in June, less than expected. There were upward revisions to May's very low print, but April was revised lower. The volatile construction sector was a drag on jobs for the second straight month. Service producing jobs rebounded. Overall the trend in ADP' jobs tally is slowing wiht the three-month average down to 133k, well below both the six- and 12-month averages, 173k and 192k, respectively. Finally, ADP data do not account for government workers which are included in the Employment Situation headline number, and this would suggest the risk is for a modest downside miss to the consensus of 164k for Friday's nonfarm payroll release. ADP National Employment ROSE by 102k in June, compared with the consensus estimate for a gain of 140k. Meanwhile, the revisions to the prior 3 months subtracted an additional 3k to the previous estimate. Over the past 12 months, private payrolls have increased by an average of 192k per month, lifting employment to 1.8% ABOVE its year ago level. Jobs in Goods-Producing Industries FELL by 15k jobs but Manufacturing gained 7k workers. Moreover, Construction lost 18k jobs. Service-Producing Industries ROSE by 117k jobs with Professional/Business Services hiring 32k workers, Trade/Transport/Utilities adding 23k, and Financial Activities increasing by 7k workers. Small Firms fired 23k workers, Medium-Sized Firms grew by 60k employees while Large Firms added 65k positions.