Jobless Claims:  No Shutdown Impact Yet

January 17, 2019
Bottom Line: Jobless claims fell, countering expectations for a modest increase, bringing the 4-week average nearly in-line with the 13-week average, suggesting steady labor market trends. There was significant volatility in the state level data, thought, with California seeing a spike of 17k claims while New York saw an unusually large decline of 23k. So far there has been limited impact from the shutdown - furloughed workers will not be eligible to collect jobless claims since they will paid once the shutdown ends and there are not yet signs of layoffs in private industries with heavy government business. Jobless Claims FELL by 3k during the week ended January 12nd, 213k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 220k.The 4-week average FELL by 1.0k to 221k and the 13 week average ROSE by 0.2k to 220k. Continuing Claims ROSE by 18k during the week ended January 5th to 1,737k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,668k to 1,719k.The 4-week average ROSE by 8k to 1,729k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 281k to 2,080k during the week ended December 29th. The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended January 5th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.