ADP Employment: Sharp Rebound, Well Above Expectations

October 3, 2018
Bottom Line: ADP showed a sharp acceleration in hiring in September, well above expectations. Construction and professional service jobs led the gains at both small and large firms. While August saw a surprise miss, the 3-month average is now back to 203k, near the 12-month average of 204k, suggesting the trend rate of job creation remains strong and steady. ADP data do not account for government workers which are included in the Employment Situation headline number due Friday -- today's report would suggest the potential for an upside surprise of the current 184k consensus. ADP National Employment ROSE by 230k in September, compared with the consensus estimate for a gain of 184k. Meanwhile, the revisions to the prior 3 months subtracted an additional 1k to the previous estimate. Over the past 12 months, private payrolls have increased by an average of 204k per month, lifting employment to 2.0% ABOVE its year ago level. Jobs in Goods-Producing Industries ROSE by 46k jobs as Manufacturing gained 7k workers. Moreover, Construction gained 34k jobs. Meanwhile, Service-Producing Industries ROSE by 184k jobs with Professional/Business Services hiring 70k workers, Trade/Transport/Utilities adding 30k, and Financial Activities increasing by 16k workers. Small Firms hired 56k workers, Medium-Sized Firms grew by 99k employees while Large Firms added 75k positions.