Jobless Claims: Steady To Improving Trend
August 9, 2018
Bottom Line: Seasonal factors expected an increase of about 9k jobless claims last week, but the unadjusted tally was just 5k, bringing the seasonally adjusted headline down 5k for the week ended August 4th. On a trend basis labor market trends remain steady to modestly improving, particularly notable given how long the current cycle has been. The 4-week average in claims is at 214k, below the 13-week average that is now 221k. Jobless Claims FELL by 6k during the week ended August 4th, 213k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 220k.The 4-week average FELL by 0.5k to 214k and the 13 week average ROSE by 0.2k to 221k. Continuing Claims ROSE by 29k during the week ended July 28th to 1,755k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 1,745k to 1,726k.The 4-week average ROSE by 3k to 1,745k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 15k to 1,725k during the week ended July 21st. The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended July 28th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors