Consumer Sentiment Prelim:  Decline led by Weaker Expectations

Bottom Line: Consumer sentiment dropped modestly in early October and was at its lowest level in 13 months. Sentiment is now modestly below its 6 month average. With the presidential election about a month away as this survey was being done the future expectations component fell to its lowest level in two years. While this is a preliminary report, the trend is stalling and bears watching as we expect substantial volatility in surveys of consumers over the next month. Consumer Sentiment FELL by 3.3 points in early October to 87.9%, compared with market expectations for an increase to 91.8%. With this month's modest decline, sentiment is now 2.3% BELOW its year ago level. Current Conditions ROSE by 1.3 points to 105.5%. This is 3.1% ABOVE their year ago level. Consumer Expectations FELL by 6.1 points to 76.6%. With this month's moderate decline, expectations are 6.7% BELOW their year ago level.