Jobless Claims: New Claims Decline Modestly

Bottom Line: Initial claims declined moderately and are at their lowest level in the last 3 weeks. The 4-week average is still at 285k, above the 13-week average that is now 276k, indicating the labor market improvement trend may be losing momentum. The continuing claims rose modestly but still remained on their 6-year long declining trend. Jobless Claims FELL by 16k during the week ended January 23rd to 278k, in line with market expectations. The prior week was revised slightly higher from 293k to 294k. The 4-week average ROSE by 7k to 285k and the 13 week average ROSE by 1k to 276k. Initial claims have been on a declining trend over the past 6 years but the pace of decline has now slowed. Continuing Claims ROSE by 49k during the week ended January 16th to 2,268k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 2,208k to 2,219k. The 4-week average ROSE by 16k to 2,246k. Despite this week's increase, continuing claims have also been on a declining trend for more than 5 years. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 136k to 2,668k during the week ended January 9th. Continuing claims have been declining amid modest volatility for the past six years. The Insured Jobless Rate FELL by 0.1% to 1.6% during the week ended January 16th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.