Consumer Confidence: Increase Modestly

Bottom Line: Consumers' assessments of the economy improved in January, more than expectations. Confidence, at 98.1, is above its three month average of 95.7. Consumers' assessments of current situations were unchanged while headline expectations rose but have been declining over the past year. Additionally, details were positive as 6-month outlooks for business and employment rose modestly while outlooks for income rose slightly. Consumer Confidence ROSE by 1.8 points in January to 98.1, compared with market expectations for an increase to 96.5. This is its highest level since October of last year. Confidence has been rising since Feb 2009 amid modest volatility. Present Situation Index was UNCHANGED at 116.4. This is now 2.2% ABOVE its year ago level. Present situation has been climbing for the past three years amid slight volatility. The Expectations Index ROSE by 2.9 points to 85.9, its highest level since October. This is still 11.5% BELOW its year ago level. Despite this month’s increase, expectations have been declining for the past year amid substantial volatility. The labor differential, the percentage of respondents who said jobs are “hard to get” from the percentage who said jobs are “plentiful”, moved higher by 0.3 points to -0.6.