Jobless Claims: New Claims Increase Modestly

Bottom Line: Initial claims climbed modestly last week. The 4-week average is at 279k, above the 13-week average that is now 272k, indicating labor market trends are deteriorating slightly. However, we do get volatile data during this time of the year due to fluctuations in filings during the holidays. The continuing claims rose slightly but remained on their 6-year long declining trend. Jobless Claims ROSE by 7k during the week ended January 9th to 284k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 275k. The 4-week average ROSE by 3k to 279k and the 13 week average ROSE by 2k to 272k. Initial claims have been on a declining trend over the past 6 years but the pace of decline has now slowed. Continuing Claims ROSE by 29k during the week ended January 2nd to 2,263k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 2,230k to 2,234k. The 4-week average ROSE by 5k to 2,224k. Despite this week's increase, continuing claims have also been on a declining trend for more than 5 years. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 299k to 2,802k during the week ended December 26th. Despite this week's increase, continuing claims have been declining amid modest volatility for the past six years. The Insured Jobless Rate ROSE by 0.1% to 1.7% during the week ended January 2nd.The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.