Jobless Claims: New Claims Decline Modestly

Jobless Claims FELL by 10k during the week ended January 2nd to 277k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 270k. The 4-week average FELL by 1k to 276k and the 13 week average ROSE by 1k to 270k. Initial claims have been on a declining trend over the past 6 years but the pace of decline has now slowed. Continuing Claims ROSE by 25k during the week ended December 26th to 2,230k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 2,198k to 2,205k. The 4-week average FELL by 4k to 2,218k. Despite this week's increase, continuing claims have also been on a declining trend for more than 5 years. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 306k to 2,498k during the week ended December 19th. Despite this week's increase, continuing claims have been declining amid modest volatility for the past six years. The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.6% during the week ended December 26th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance. Bottom Line: Initial claims declined modestly last week. The 4-week average is at 276k, still above the 13-week average that is now 270k, indicating labor market trends are deteriorating slightly. However, we do get volatile data during this time of the year due to fluctuations in filings during the holidays. The continuing claims rose slightly but remained on their 6-year long declining trend.