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Jobless Claims: Further Decline, Post-Pandemic Lows

November 4, 2021
Bottom Line: Jobless claims fell for the fifth week in a row, hitting another post-pandemic low as the labor market continued to show signs of slow improvement. On a trend basis, claims are headed in the right direction, showing the labor market recovery continues, albeit slowly. Moreover, some state-level volatility appears to be easing, and seasonal adjustments were minor and should remain so for the next few weeks.
Our Nowcast model suggests claims have continued to drop this week, continuing the trend lower.
Jobless Claims FELL by 14k during the week ended October 30th to 269k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 275k. The 4-week average FELL by 15.0k to 285k and the 13-week average FELL by 9.1k to 327k.
Continuing Claims FELL by 134k during the week ended October 23th to 2,105k, The 4-week average FELL by 156k to 2,357k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 97k to 1,889k during the week ended October 16th.
The Insured Jobless Rate
FELL by  0.1% to 1.6% during the week ended October 23th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.