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Jobless Claims: Edge Higher

November 10, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims edged higher last week, led by increases in California and Kentucky. Layoff announcements have increased in recent weeks, especially in the tech sector. While many of these workers receive severance and won't be eligible for jobless benefits until those end, some will likely be making claims in the coming weeks. Historically, claims remain extremely low, especially when adjusted for the size of the workforce. But as the Fed looks for the labor market to loosen, the trend is turning slightly higher again for claims, with last week's reading just above the four- and 13-week averages. Overall, claims are still low, but this potential shift in trend bears close watching over the next few weeks.
Initial Jobless Claims ROSE 7k in the week ended November 5th to 225k, ABOVE the 4-week average of 218.75k, ABOVE the 13-week average of 219.61538k but 54k BELOW the year-ago level. Claims for the 29th of Oct were revised up from +217k to +218k. Non-seasonally adjusted Claims ROSE 19.054k.
Continuing Claims ROSE 6k in the week ended October 29th to 1.493M, ABOVE the 4-week average of 1.45025M, ABOVE the 13-week average of 1.410538M but 810k BELOW the year-ago level. Continuing Claims for the 22nd of Oct were revised up from +1.485M to +1.487M.
Article by Contingent Macro