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Jobless Claims: Modest Rebound

March 31, 2022
Bottom Line: After hitting their lowest levels since 1969, jobless claims rebounded modestly last week. Claims were notably higher in Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, states with heavy vehicle manufacturing, a sector where we continue to see temporary layoffs due to short-term plant shutdowns amid supply chain constraints. Still, the trend in claims remains headed in the right direction. Last week's print was still below the 4-week average, which is below the 13-week average. Moreover, our Nowcast model suggests this week is again running below 200k.
Initial Jobless Claims ROSE 14k in the week ended March 26th to 202k, BELOW the 4-week average of 208.5k, BELOW the 13-week average of 229.61538k and 527k BELOW the year-ago level. Claims for the 19th of Mar were revised up from +187k to +188k. Non-seasonally adjusted Claims ROSE 13.121k.
Continuing Claims FELL 35k in the week ended March 19th to 1.307M, BELOW the 4-week average of 1.389M, BELOW the 13-week average of 1.533231M and 2.446M BELOW the year-ago level. Continuing Claims for the 12th of March were revised down from +1.35M to +1.342M.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors