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Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Gains To Start '22

March 29, 2022
Bottom Line:  Home prices rose more than expected for the third consecutive month in January, starting the year on a strong note as supply conditions remained tight. Case-Shiller's index of home prices tends to be lagged but it offers greater detail than most other indicators. These January data largely confirm other data points that showed prices moving higher even as activity slowed amid tight supply conditions. Markets in Florida and Texas continued to lead the gains year-on-year, along with Phoenix,  San Diego, and Las Vegas. Year-on-year gains were 28 - 35% in those hot markets. But even the slowest markets have seen year-on-year gains of 12-14% (Chicago, Minneapolis, and Washington, DC). Overall, the in-migration trends in the hottest markets helped drive prices higher, as supply conditions remained tight in all parts of the country, continuing to drive prices higher in even the slowest markets.
Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index ROSE by 1.79% (seasonally adjusted) in January to 292.2, compared with market expectations for an increase of 1.5%.  Home prices are 19.1% ABOVE their year-ago level.  On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index ROSE by 1.4% on the month.
Housing prices rose in 20 of the 20 metro areas in January (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in 20 of 20 metro areas on a year-over-year basis. Washington DC had the smallest year-over-year increase at 12.3% while Phoenix had the largest year-over-year increase at 35.3%.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors