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NY Empire Manufacturing: Barely Rebounds

February 15, 2022
Bottom Line:   Manufacturers in the New York region reported only a slight rebound in activity in February after a contraction last month. New order growth grew only slightly after contracting in January. Prices paid remained at historically high levels, while prices received accelerated sharply. Inventories increased modestly, and purchasing managers' expectations for future business slipped modestly. Overall, supply chain disruptions and higher prices appeared to take their toll on manufacturers in the New York Fed region. While these regional surveys are best taken collectively as they often show significant dispersion month-to-month, this first regional survey for February offers concern. We'll be watching the upcoming regional surveys even more closely than usual.
The New York Fed's Index of Manufacturing General Business ConditionsROSE 3.8 points to 3.1, BELOW the 3-Month average of 11.43, BELOW the 6-Month average of 19.88, and 9 BELOW the year-ago level.
  • New Orders ROSE 6.4 points to 1.4, BELOW the 3-Month average of 7.83, BELOW the 6-Month average of 18.38, and 9.4 BELOW the year-ago level.
  • Shipments were nearly unchanged,  up 1.9 points to 2.9, BELOW the 3-Month average of 10.33, BELOW the 6-Month average of 15.83 and 1.1 BELOW the year-ago level.
  • Unfilled Orders ROSE 2.3 points to 14.4, BELOW the 3-Month average of 15.17, BELOW the 6-Month average of 16.27 but 11.8 ABOVE the year-ago level.  Delivery Times were unchanged at 21.6, BELOW the 3-Month average of 22.1, BELOW the 6-Month average of 28.83 but 12.5 ABOVE the year-ago level.
  • Inventories ROSE 1.4 points to 11.7, ABOVE the 3-Month average of 10.37, ABOVE the 6-Month average of 10.62, and 5.2 ABOVE the year-ago level.
  • Prices Paid were nearly unchanged,  up 0.1 points to 76.6, BELOW the 3-Month average of 77.83, BELOW the 6-Month average of 78.48 but 18.8 ABOVE the year-ago level.
  • Prices Received ROSE 17 points to 54.1, ABOVE the 3-Month average of 45.27, ABOVE the 6-Month average of 46.32, and 30.7 ABOVE the year-ago level.
  • Future General Business Conditions FELL 6.9 points to 28.2, BELOW the 3-Month average of 33.23, BELOW the 6-Month average of 39.5 and 6.7 BELOW the year-ago level.
  • Future Capital Expenditures FELL 1.9 points to 37.8, BELOW the 3-Month average of 38.5, ABOVE the 6-Month average of 35.93 but 9.2 ABOVE the year-ago level.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors