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Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Gains In Late '21

January 25, 2022
Bottom Line:  Home prices rose slightly more than expected in November as supply conditions remained tight coming into year-end. Consistent with plateauing but still robust housing data, home prices were up just over 13% annualized in the three months ended in November versus up over 18% in the prior twelve months. Markets in Florida and Texas continued to lead the gains year-on-year, along with Phoenix, Seattle, San Diego, and Las Vegas. Year-on-year gains were 25 - 34% in those hot markets. But even the slowest markets have seen year-on-year gains of just over 12% (Chicago, Minneapolis, and Washington, DC). Of course, the Case-Shiller index is lagged, and most indicators suggest prices have continued to edge higher, albeit at a slightly slower pace, amid tight supply conditions and the structural shift in demand towards single-family, suburban homes induced by the pandemic.
Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index ROSE by 1.18% (seasonally adjusted) in November to 282.5, compared with market expectations for an increase of 0.9%. Home prices are 18.3% ABOVE their year-ago level.  On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index ROSE by 1.0% on the month.
Housing prices rose in all 20 metro areas in November (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in 20 of 20 metro areas on a year-over-year basis.  Washington DC had the smallest year-over-year increase at 12.4% while Phoenix had the largest year-over-year increase at 34.3%.