The attached file contains this articles commentary as well as tables and charts of the data.
Jobless Claims: Modest Rebound Seasonally Adjusted
December 2, 2021
Bottom Line: After falling sharply, mostly due to the seasonal adjustment factor around Thanksgiving, jobless claims rebounded modestly at the headline level last week. Looking through the seasonal adjustments, the trend rate of claims remains in the 220-240k range, in line with the 4-week average and still lower than the 13-week average of 291k. Overall, progress in the labor market continues with the trend rate of claims running just above pre-pandemic levels.Our Nowcast model, which only uses non-seasonally adjusted data, suggests claims were running right at the trend rate through yesterday, about 228k.Initial Jobless Claims ROSE 28k in the week ended November 27th to 222k, BELOW the 4-week average of 239k, BELOW the 13-week average of 291k and 497k BELOW the year-ago level. Non-seasonally adjusted Claims FELL 41.6k to 212k.Continuing Claims FELL 107k in the week ended November 20th to 1.96M, BELOW the 4-week average of 2.08M, BELOW the 13-week average of 2.44M and 3.65M BELOW the year-ago level. Continuing Claims for the 13th of Nov were revised up from +2.05M to +2.06M.The Insured Jobless Rate FELL -10bps in the week ended November 20th to 1.4%. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors