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Jobless Claims: Another Decline, Headed in Right Direction

October 28, 2021
Bottom Line: Jobless claims fell for the fourth week in a row, hitting another post-pandemic low as the labor market continued to show signs of slow improvement. Claims on a trend basis are headed in the right direction, showing the labor market recovery continues, albeit slowly.  However, there remain pockets of volatility as claims spike in some states due not only to processing anomalies but also short-term shutdowns of some production facilities, especially in the auto sector.   So while the national trend is headed in the right direction, there are local concerns that bear watching in the closing months of 2021. 
Our Nowcast model suggests claims might be stabilizing and even heading slightly higher this week.  The model's forecast with data through last night was back to about 300k.
Jobless Claims FELL by 10k during the week ended October 23th to 281k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 288k. The 4-week average FELL by 20.8k to 299k and the 13-week average FELL by 9.1k to 336k.
Continuing Claims FELL by 237k during the week ended October 16th to 2,243k, The 4-week average FELL by 142k to 2,513k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 177k to 1,991k during the week ended October 9th.
The Insured Jobless Rate
FELL by  0.1% to 1.7% during the week ended October 16th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.