Article Attachment

The attached file contains this articles commentary as well as tables and charts of the data.
Download Attachment

ADP Employment: Strong Gains As Leisure and Hospitality Hires

October 6, 2021
Bottom Line:   ADP reported sharply stronger job growth in September, with nearly half the gains from leisure and hospitality jobs. The report was stronger than expected even after adjusting for modest negative revisions to August data.  Large firms in the leisure and hospitality sector drove the September gains, but hiring was robust across industries and all sizes of businesses. Goods-producing sectors like construction and manufacturing saw their most robust gains in several months. While volatility will remain a big part of the monthly numbers and predictive modeling will be difficult, the trend in ADP employment data remains headed in the right direction, albeit at a slightly slower pace relative to early this year.  Moreover, this report suggests slight upside risk to the consensus forecast of 488k for nonfarm payroll growth on Friday.
ADP National Employment ROSE by 568k in September, compared with the consensus estimate for a gain of 430k. Meanwhile, the revisions to the prior 3 months subtracted 39k from the previous estimate. Over the past 12 months, private payrolls have increased by an average of 418k per month, lifting employment to 4.2% ABOVE its year-ago level.
Jobs in Goods-Producing Industries ROSE by 102k jobs as Manufacturing gained 49k workers. Moreover, Construction gained 46k jobs.

Service-Producing Industries
ROSE by 466k jobs with Professional/Business Services hiring 61k workers, Trade/Transport/Utilities adding 54k, and Financial Activities increasing by 22k workers.
Small Firms hired 63k workers, Medium-Sized Firms grew by 115k employees while Large Firms added 390k positions.