Article Attachment

The attached file contains this articles commentary as well as tables and charts of the data.
Download Attachment

Jobless Claims: Another Surprise Jump

September 30, 2021
Bottom Line: Jobless claims rose unexpectedly for the third week in a row.  The unadjusted tally fell slightly, though, meaning the increase entirely due to the seasonal adjustment.  Still, claims should have fallen more, but backlogs remain a significant issue in California, where claims jumped sharply again, and in several other states.  Retooling of auto plants has also caused a temporary spike in jobless claims with states like Michigan seeing sharply higher claims.  Overall, the jump in claims in the last three weeks bears close watching but is not yet alarming.  
Our Nowcast model confirms that the recent jump is likely due to processing anomalies.  It suggests the unadjusted claim count is likely closer to 280k and still trending lower.
Jobless Claims ROSE by 11k during the week ended September 25th to 362k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 330k. The 4-week average ROSE by 4.3k to 340k and the 13-week average FELL by 0.5k to 365k.
Continuing Claims FELL by 18k during the week ended September 18th to 2,802k, The 4-week average FELL by 1k to 2,797k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 49k to 2,461k during the week ended September 11st.

The Insured Jobless Rate
FELL by  0.1% to 2.0% during the week ended September 18th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.