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Jobless Claims: Further Declines, Approaching 300k

September 9, 2021
Bottom Line: Claims fell sharply heading in the Labor Day holiday weekend, hitting 310k. While about 2/3rds of the decline was due to difficult seasonal adjustments around the Labor Day holiday, the trend remains slowly in the right direction.
Our Nowcast model suggests there could be a sharp increase in claims following the holiday-shortened week.  We expect more volatility in the coming weeks, in part due to auto plant shutdowns, as well as difficult seasonal adjustments.
Jobless Claims FELL by 35k during the week ended September 4th to 310k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 335k. The 4-week average FELL by 16.8k to 340k and the 13 week average FELL by 4.9k to 377k.
Continuing Claims
FELL by 22k during the week ended August 28th to 2,783k, The 4-week average FELL by 29k to 2,840k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 75k to 2,600k during the week ended August 21st.

The Insured Jobless Rate
STAYED at 2.0% during the week ended August 28th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.