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Jobless Claims: Further Declines

August 19, 2021
Bottom Line: Initial Jobless Claims fell for the fourth week in a row, dropping below 350k for the first time since the pandemic. jobless claims fell for the third week in a row but remained stubbornly in the high 300s. The 4-week average is now back below the 13-week average, suggesting the trend remains towards slow labor market improvement.
Our Nowcast model suggests claims fell further this week, dropping to 322k based on data through Wednesday.
Jobless Claims FELL by 29k during the week ended August 14th to 348k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 364k. The 4-week average FELL by 19.0k to 378k and the 13-week average FELL by 7.4k to 389k.
Continuing Claims
FELL by 79k during the week ended August 7th to 2,820k, The 4-week average FELL by 111k to 2,999k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 87k to 2,764k during the week ended July 31st.     
The Insured Jobless Rate
STAYED at 2.1% during the week ended August 7th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.