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Jobless Claims: Slight Uptick, Potential For More

July 15, 2021
Bottom Line: Claims were revised sharply higher for the prior week, and last week's reading came in above what was originally reported, mostly due to difficult seasonal adjustments around the Independence Day holiday, which officially fell on Monday, July 5th.  Overall, the trend remains steadily lower for claims, a positive sign for the labor market.    
That said, our Nowcasting model suggests there has been an uptick in claims in the last two weeks, which may not be coming through in the weekly state claim reports yet.  We wouldn't be surprised to see claims back over 400k, as our model suggests, for a week or two as some pent-up claims get processed. 
Jobless Claims FELL by 26k during the week ended July 10th to 360k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 350k.The 4-week average FELL by 14.5k to 383k and the 13 week average FELL by 17.4k to 438k.
Continuing Claims FELL by 126k during the week ended July 3rd to 3,241k, The 4-week average FELL by 72k to 3,376k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 145k to 3,120k during the week ended June 26th.
The Insured Jobless Rate
STAYED at 2.4% during the week ended July 3rd. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.