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Jobless Claims: Little Changed, Nowcast Model Warning

July 8, 2021
Bottom Line: Claims were little changed in the week leading up to the 4th of July holiday long weekend. The trend remains lower, but we expect some volatility in the coming weeks due to difficult seasonal adjustments with the federal holiday falling on a Monday, July 5th.
Our Nowcasting model suggests there has been an uptick in claims in the last week.  While volatile and still prone to large moves over the balance of this week, there is potential that claims could jump back over 500k on an unadjusted basis.   But even that, if brief, would not change the improving trend.
Jobless Claims ROSE by 2k during the week ended July 3rd to 373k, compared with market expectations for 350k. The 4-week average FELL by 0.3k to 395k and the 13-week average FELL by 28.4k to 455k.
Continuing Claims
FELL by 145k during the week ended June 26th to 3,339k, The 4-week average FELL by 45k to 3,441k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 49k to 3,236k during the week ended June 19th.
The Insured Jobless Rate
FELL by  0.1% to 2.4% during the week ended June 26th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.