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Jobless Claims: Declines Resume

July 1, 2021
Bottom Line: After two weeks of surprising increases, jobless claims fell sharply, hitting a new pandemic low.  Seasonal adjustments were modest, and most of the anomalous jumps in the last two weeks reversed.  The trend remains lower, with the 4-week average still just below 400k, below the 13-week average of 483k.  
Our Nowcasting model suggests claims this week are holding near recent levels. 
Jobless Claims FELL by 51k during the week ended June 26th to 364k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 388k.The 4-week average FELL by 6.0k to 393k and the 13-week average FELL by 28.1k to 483k.
Continuing Claims ROSE by 56k during the week ended June 19th to 3,469k, The 4-week average FELL by 75k to 3,482k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 38k to 3,271k during the week ended June 12nd.
The Insured Jobless Rate
STAYED at 2.5% during the week ended June 19th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.