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Jobless Claims: Surprise Increase, Trend Still Lower

June 17, 2021
Bottom Line: After six straight weeks of declines, jobless claims jumped to over 400k for the first time since May 22.  Seasonal factors were very small after several weeks of substantial adjustments.  The trend remains lower, with the 4-week average still below 400k, now 395k, well below the 13-week average of 529k.
Our Nowcasting model predicted the rebound back over 400k for last week and now shows sharp declines in the current week.
Jobless Claims ROSE by 37k during the week ended June 12nd to 412k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 360k.The 4-week average FELL by 8.0k to 395k and the 13 week average FELL by 27.2k to 529k.
Continuing Claims
ROSE by 1k during the week ended June 5th to 3,518k, The 4-week average FELL by 55k to 3,604k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 45k to 3,288k during the week ended May 29th.
The Insured Jobless Rate
STAYED at 2.5% during the week ended June 5th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.