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Jobless Claims: Sixth Week of Improvement

June 10, 2021
Bottom Line: Claims fell for the sixth straight week and were almost half of early April levels. Non-seasonally adjusted claims were just over 367k, close to the adjusted figure of 376k, despite the Memorial Day holiday.   The trend remains lower, with the 4-week average at 403k, below the 13-week average of 556k.  
Our Nowcasting model suggests the potential for a short-term uptick, potentially over 400k unadjusted this week.  But even pushing back over 400k for a few weeks would not change the improvement trend.
Jobless Claims FELL by 9k during the week ended June 5th to 376k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 370k. The 4-week average FELL by 25.5k to 403k and the 13 week average FELL by 27.5k to 556k.
Continuing Claims FELL by 258k during the week ended May 29th to 3,499k, The 4-week average FELL by 35k to 3,651k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 175k to 3,316k during the week ended May 22nd.
The Insured Jobless Rate
FELL by  0.2% to 2.5% during the week ended May 29th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.