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Jobless Claims: Sharp Drop, Look for Rebound

April 15, 2021
Bottom Line: Claims fell sharply in the week following the Easter holiday.  Several states, including California, saw sharply lower claims as the Easter holiday impacted processing in the early part of last week.  Expect claims to rebound modestly, but the trend has clearly improved and will likely continue to do so after the recent difficult seasonal adjustments.
Our Nowcasting model suggests claims should rebound nearly 100k this week (to be reported next Thursday) but still remain below 700k.
Jobless Claims FELL by 193k during the week ended April 10th to 576k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 700k. The 4-week average FELL by 47.3k to 683k and the 13 week average FELL by 25.2k to 770k.
Continuing Claims
ROSE by 4k during the week ended April 3rd to 3,731k, The 4-week average FELL by 98k to 3,763k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 88k to 3,937k during the week ended March 27th.
The Insured Jobless Rate
ROSE by  0.1% to 2.7% during the week ended April 3rd. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.