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Jobless Claims: Modest Increase From 1-Year Low

April 1, 2021
Bottom Line: Claims rose in the final full week of the quarter after sharp declines in the prior week, which were revised even lower. Seasonal factors were very small last week.  Most of the upside volatility was caused by a jump in Virginia, Kentucky, and Georgia, all of which appear to be one-off processing events.  Looking through the volatility, the trend is still moving swiftly lower.
Amid continued reopenings and increased vaccine distribution, our Nowcasting model forecasts one more week of increased claims due to processing bottlenecks.  But the trend remains lower.
Jobless Claims ROSE by 61k during the week ended March 27th to 719k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 675k. The 4-week average FELL by 10.5k to 719k and the 13 week average FELL by 3.4k to 795k.

Continuing Claims
FELL by 46k during the week ended March 20th to 3,794k, The 4-week average FELL by 147k to 3,979k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 91k to 4,143k during the week ended March 13th.
The Insured Jobless Rate
STAYED at 2.7% during the week ended March 20th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.