JOLTs: Openings Edge Higher
December 9, 2020
Bottom Line: The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary is lagged relative to other labor market reports but offers more details into the labor market recovery. The October report showed the quit rate was unchanged at 2.2%, while the layoff & discharge rate rose modestly to 1.2%. The number of job openings as a % of short-term unemployed (less than 27 weeks) was 140.6%, down from 147.8% in September. The hires to job openings ratio inched lower again, a good sign. While a touch lower in October, total hires were still modestly above the pre-pandemic levels as businesses continue to re-hire laid-off workers, while the number of job openings was just below pre-pandemic levels. Overall, the critical dynamics of the labor market were still improving slightly. Job Openings ROSE by 158k in October to 6.652 million, compared with market expectations for an increase to 6.300 million. Government job openings ROSE by 3k. Consequently, private-sector job openings ROSE by 155k. Over the past 12 months, there were 657k more job openings. Job Hires FELL by 74k in October to 5.812 million. Over the past 12 months, there were 55k more job hires. Job Separations ROSE by 263k in October to 5.107 million. Over the past 12 months, there were 473k more job separations. The Hires to Job openings ratio FELL by 0.033 points from 0.906 to 0.874 and is modestly below its 12 month average of 0.928. The Number of Unemployed to Job openings ratio FELL by 0.27 points from 1.94 to 1.66 and is sharply below its 12 month average of 2.02. This ratio has been declining since its July 2009 peak of 6.7 amid some volatility.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors