Jobless Claims: Near Lows Again
February 6, 2020
Bottom Line: Initial jobless claims fell nearly 15k in the final week of January, mostly due to seasonal factors. Actual claims fell by just over 4k, while the seasonal factor expected an increase of 11k. The 4-week average is at 212k, below the 13-week average that is now 220k, a positive signal for labor market trends. That said, we are keeping a close on non-seasonally adjusted continuing claims (bottom chart), which are edging above previous seasonal highs. Jobless Claims FELL by 15k during the week ended February 1st, 202k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 215k.The 4-week average FELL by 3.0k to 212k and the 13 week average FELL by 0.7k to 220k. Continuing Claims ROSE by 48k during the week ended January 25th to 1,751k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,731k to 1,747k.The 4-week average FELL by 13k to 1,742k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 64k to 2,143k during the week ended January 18th. The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended January 25th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors