2Q19 GDP: 2Q Steady at 2% As 3Q Looks Close to Same
September 26, 2019
Bottom Line: Economic activity was unchanged in Q2-19 from previous reports. Because this revision was largely due to new June data this suggests that the pace of growth late in the quarter was steady at levels similar to early in the quarter. Economic activity is now a modest 2.3% above its year ago level and 26.8% above its previous peak level in 2007 Q4. 2019 Q3 ends Monday -- the data released so far for July, August and early September suggest that 2019 Q3 economic activity grew at a similar pace to Q2-19; many early estimates are between 1.75-2%. GDP was UNCHANGED at 2.0% in this third estimate for 2019 2nd Quarter, in-line with market expectations for no change. Economic activity is now 2.3% above its year ago level. In final sales categories, net exports, government purchases, and exports were revised higher, while fixed investment, consumption, imports, and residential investment were revised lower. As a result of all of these changes, real final sales was steady at 3.0% while real domestic demand was revised down by 0.1 percentage points to 3.6%. The GDP Price Index was REVISED UP by 0.05 points to 2.4%, compared with market expectations no change. Economy-wide prices are now 1.8% ABOVE year ago levels.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors