Consumer Sentiment: Inches Higher, Still Strong

Bottom Line: The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey showed a slight increase in early July. Gains were led by consumers' expectations, while their assessments of current conditions were a touch lower. Inflation expectations for the next year were a touch lower, but 5-year ahead inflation expectations moved back up to 2.6%, near the top of the recent range. Overall consumers' outlooks were little changed and remain at levels suggesting continued modest to moderate rates of consumption. That said, there as been a clear loss of momentum and even slight downtrend developing in the current expectations index -- this bears watching as consumer's assess upcoming Fed actions, as well as potential trade policy. Consumer Sentiment ROSE by 0.2 points in early July to 98.4%, compared with market expectations for an increase to 98.8%. With this month's slight increase, sentiment is now 0.5% ABOVE its year ago level. Current Conditions FELL by 0.8 points to 111.1%. This is 2.9% BELOW their year ago level. Consumer Expectations ROSE by 0.8 points to 90.1%. With this month's slight increase, expectations are 3.2% ABOVE its year ago level.