Jobless Claims:  Uptick, Hints of Concern

June 27, 2019
Bottom Line: Jobless claims rose last week, more than expected as claims in California were estimated and notably higher. Claims in Massachusetts and New Jersey were also notably higher. This suggests some difficulty with the collection of the data. Overall, though, looking at the trend, while the level of claims is still historically quite low, there are hints of a potential bottoming. The 4-week average is at 221k, above the 13-week average that is now 216k, indicating the labor market trends is losing momentum -- this bears watching closely in the coming weeks, even amid some summer volatility. Jobless Claims ROSE by 10k during the week ended June 22nd, 227k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 220k.The 4-week average ROSE by 2.3k to 221k and the 13 week average ROSE by 1.2k to 216k. Continuing Claims ROSE by 22k during the week ended June 15th to 1,688k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,657k to 1,666k.The 4-week average ROSE by 7k to 1,687k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 30k to 1,553k during the week ended June 8th. The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended June 15th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.