Case-Shiller Home Prices:  Major Market Slowdown Continued

June 25, 2019
Bottom Line: Home prices were flat nationwide in April, but there were modest upward revisions to March data. After averaging 5.8% annualized in 2017 and 2018, national average gains are now running below 3%. The hottest markets, including Vegas and Phoenix, have gained still gained 6-9% over the last year. But most West Coast markets and the major metro areas of Chicago and New York have gained just 2% or less in the last year. Some of the slowdown in these higher price markets is likely still due to changes to changes in the federal tax treatment of local property and mortgage interest. Overall the trend is towards very slow house price appreciation on average nationwide. Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index FELL by 0.0% (seasonally adjusted) in April to 215.7, compared with market expectations for an increase of 0.1%. Home prices are 2.5% ABOVE their year ago level. Nationwide home prices are now just 4.3% ABOVE their April 2006 peak, near late 2005 levels and 57.6% ABOVE their January 2012 trough. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index ROSE by 0.8% on the month. Housing prices rose in 16 of the 20 metro areas in April (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in 20 of 20 metro areas on a year-over-year basis. Seattle had the smallest year-over-year increase at 1.0% while Las Vegas had the largest year-over-year increase at 8.4%.