Jobless Claims: Trending Lower Again After Volatile Adjustments
April 4, 2019
Bottom Line: With difficult seasonal adjustments and weather-related volatility largely behind us, the trend in claims is turning lower again, suggesting continued modest labor market improvement. Last week saw claims decline 10k with minimal seasonal adjustments. The 4-week average is at 214k, below the 13-week average that is now 220k. Jobless Claims FELL by 10k during the week ended March 30th, 202k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 215k.The 4-week average FELL by 4.0k to 214k and the 13 week average FELL by 2.2k to 220k. Continuing Claims FELL by 38k during the week ended March 23th to 1,717k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,736k to 1,755k.The 4-week average FELL by 8k to 1,743k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 111k to 1,899k during the week ended March 16th. The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended March 23th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors