Jobless Claims: Trend Remains Towards Modest Improvement
March 28, 2019
Bottom Line: With difficult seasonal adjustments and weather-related volatility largely behind us, the trend in claims is turning lower again, suggesting continued modest labor market improvement. Last week saw claims decline 4k with minimal seasonal adjustments. The 4-week average is at 217k, below the 13-week average that is now 222k. Jobless Claims FELL by 5k during the week ended March 23th, 211k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 220k.The 4-week average FELL by 3.3k to 217k and the 13 week average FELL by 0.9k to 222k. Continuing Claims ROSE by 13k during the week ended March 16th to 1,756k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,736k to 1,743k.The 4-week average FELL by 4k to 1,751k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 2k to 2,010k during the week ended March 9th. The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended March 16th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors