Case-Shiller Home Prices: Slow Start to '19 As Tax Impact Takes A Toll

Bottom Line: Home prices barely rose nationwide in the first month of 2019 as most California market saw lower prices. Higher tax regions across the country are seeing slower or even modest price declines as buyers adjust to federal tax treatment of local property and mortgage interest. On the positive side Vegas remains a very hot market, now up over 11% year-on-year., while the slowest annual gains were seen in San Diego. Overall the trend is towards steadily slower rates of home price appreciation. Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index ROSE by 0.1% (seasonally adjusted) in January to 214.6, compared with market expectations for an increase of 0.3%. Home prices are 3.5% ABOVE their year ago level. Nationwide home prices are now just 3.8% ABOVE their April 2006 peak, near late 2005 levels and 56.8% ABOVE their January 2012 trough. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index FELL by 0.2% on the month. Housing prices rose in 14 of the 20 metro areas in January (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in 20 of 20 metro areas on a year-over-year basis. San Diego had the smallest year-over-year increase at 2.0% while Las Vegas had the largest year-over-year increase at 11.4%.