Consumer Confidence: Still Near Records, Hints of Concern
November 27, 2018
Bottom Line: Consumer confidence fell slightly in November, as expected, led by a modest retreat in consumer expectations. The overall level of both the present situation component and the expectations component remain near record highs, suggesting consumer confidence remains strong overall. That said, details of the report showed hints of concern that bear watching going forward - 6-month outlooks for business fell sharply, outlooks for income fell modestly and employment was unchanged. Consumer Confidence FELL by 2.2 points in November to 135.7, compared with market expectations for a decline to 135.7. The index is now 5.5% ABOVE its year ago level. Present Situation Index ROSE by 0.8 points to 172.7. The index is 11.5% ABOVE its year ago level. The Expectations Index FELL by 3.6 points to 111.0. The index is 0.0% BELOW its year ago level. The labor differential, the percentage of respondents who said jobs are â€œhard to getâ€ from the percentage who said jobs are â€œplentifulâ€ , moved higher by 2.4 points to 34.4.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors