Jobless Claims: Volatility
November 15, 2018
Bottom Line: Devastating wildfires in California are starting to impact the state's collection of unemployment claims. The state's tally in the latest week were estimates that pushed national total a touch higher. On a trend basis claims are still trending lower adjusted for weather-related volatility in the last two months. Expect more volatility from difficult seasonal adjustments in the next few weeks. Jobless Claims ROSE by 2k during the week ended November 10th, 216k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 213k.The 4-week average ROSE by 1.5k to 215k and the 13 week average ROSE by 0.3k to 211k. Continuing Claims ROSE by 46k during the week ended November 3rd to 1,676k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 1,661k to 1,630k.The 4-week average ROSE by 9k to 1,644k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 50k to 1,442k during the week ended October 27th. The Insured Jobless Rate ROSE by 0.1% to 1.2% during the week ended November 3rd. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors