Case-Shiller Home Prices: Surprise Slower In March; Trend Remains Steady

May 29, 2018
Bottom Line: While home prices rose less than expected in March, the trend towards higher home prices nationally continues, even accelerating modestly in the 4th and 1st Quarters. Tight supply conditions continue to drive prices, especially in the hottest markets (Seattle, Vegas, and San Francisco areas). The slowest gaining markets in the last few years - Chicago, DC, and Cleveland areas, for instance - continue to see the slowest month-on-month gains. Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index ROSE by 0.5% (seasonally adjusted) in March to 210.5, compared with market expectations for an increase of 0.8%. Home prices are 6.7% ABOVE their year ago level. Nationwide home prices are now just 1.8% ABOVE their April 2006 peak, near late 2005 levels and 53.9% ABOVE their January 2012 trough. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index ROSE by 1.0% on the month. Housing prices rose in 19 of the 20 metro areas in March (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in 20 of 20 metro areas on a year-over-year basis. Chicago had the smallest year-over-year increase at 2.8% while Seattle had the largest year-over-year increase at 14.1%.