Employment Situation: Headline Miss, But Solid 4th Quarter Labor Data Overall
January 5, 2018
Bottom Line: Payroll Employment rose by 148k in December, compared with market expectations for an increase of 190k. There were modest revisions to the previous two months which subtracted a total of 9k jobs. Still, job creation has averaged 204k over the past 3 months vs. the past 12 months average of 171k. Retail jobs, a source of difficult seasonal adjustments were a drag on gains, especially among department stores relative to online retail.
Hourly earnings rose moderately after a smaller increase in November. Weekly earnings rose 0.30%. The workweek was unchanged and the 3-month average is now 34.5.
Overall, while this report was a modest miss of expectations, the final quarter of 2017 ended with solid job gains, sharply above the average of the last 12-months. The strong gains in total aggregate weekly hours and modest wage growth left total paycheck growth in the fourth quarter also very solid.
Payroll Employment rose by 148k in December, compared with market expectations for an increase of 190k. The prior 2 months were revised, higher in November by 24k and lower in October by 33k. Government jobs ROSE by 2k. Consequently, private sector jobs ROSE by 146k.
Overall employment is now 1.4% ABOVE its year ago level, Over the past 12 months, 2,055k jobs have been created.
- In December, the job gains were in Trade, Transportation & Utilities (+10k with -20k of those in Retail Trade),
- Professional & Business Services (+19k with the addition of 7.0k in Temp Help Services),
- Construction (+30k),
- Education & Health Services (+29k),
- Leisure & Hospitality (+29k),
- Manufacturing (+25k),
- Other Services (+12k), and
- Information (+7k).
Article by
Contingent Macro Advisors