Case-Shiller Home Prices:  Modest Acceleration Building

Bottom Line: Home prices rose more than expected in October as tight supply conditions persisted. While month-to-month data for this series can be heavily influenced by seasonal factors, the year-on-year trend analysis now shows a slight acceleration higher in the pace of annual gains. For the most part, the weaker markets (DC, Chicago) and strongest markets (Seattle, Vegas) have remained the same. Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index ROSE by 0.7% (seasonally adjusted) in October to 203.1, compared with market expectations for an increase of 0.6%. Home prices are 6.4% ABOVE their year ago level. Nationwide home prices are now just 1.7% BELOW their April 2006 peak, near late 2005 levels and 48.5% ABOVE their January 2012 trough. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index ROSE by 0.2% on the month. Housing prices rose in 19 of the 20 metro areas in October (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in 20 of 20 metro areas on a year-over-year basis. Washington DC had the smallest year-over-year increase at 3.5% while Seattle had the largest year-over-year increase at 13.6%.