Case-Shiller Home Prices: Increase Modestly

Bottom Line: Home prices rose in January for the 6th consecutive month, slightly above expectations. Prices are now 35.6% above the cyclical nadir in January 2012. Over the past year and a half home prices are rising steadily around 5% year-over-year. Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index ROSE by 0.8% (seasonally adjusted) in January to 185.5, compared with market expectations for an increase of 0.7%. This was the index's 6th monthly increase after 3 consecutive monthly declines. The prior month was revised from 0.80% to 0.78%. Home prices are 5.8% ABOVE their year ago level. This was the 45th consecutive year-over-year increase following 20 straight months of year-over-year declines. Nevertheless, nationwide home prices are still 10.3% BELOW their April 2006 peak, near April 2005 levels and 35.6% ABOVE their January 2012 trough. (On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index FELL by 0.02% but is still 5.7% ABOVE their year earlier level.) Housing prices rose in 19 of the 20 metropolitan areas in January (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in all metropolitan areas on a year-over-year basis. Washington DC had the smallest year-over-year increase at 2.4% while Portland had the largest year-over-year increase at 11.9%.