Consumer Sentiment: Declines Modestly

Bottom Line: Consumer sentiment fell modestly in early March and was at its lowest level since October. Sentiment is now below its 6 month average. Overall sentiment had been on a climbing trend for the past 4 years but has started to decline since December on a year over year basis. Consumer Sentiment FELL by 1.7 points in early March to 90.0%, compared with market expectations for an increase to 92.2%. With this month's slight decline, sentiment is now 3.2% BELOW its year ago level. Sentiment had been rising since August 2011 amid substantial volatility until December. Current Conditions FELL by 1.2 points to 105.6%. This is now 0.6% ABOVE their year ago level. Current conditions have been climbing erratically for the past 4 years. Consumer Expectations FELL by 1.9 points to 80.0%. Expectations had been climbing slowly amid substantial volatility over the past 4 years until December. With this month's slight decline, expectations are now 6.2% BELOW its year ago level.